China and India are forecast to drive Asia's economy between now and 2007 to keep it the world's fastest growing region, but the rest of Asia is expected to post only modest expansion, a report said yesterday.
In its latest quarterly report, the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) also warned of risks that could affect its projections for global growth, including a possible collapse of the US dollar against the euro, terrorism and a resurgence of SARS.
The Asia-Pacific region, not including Japan, should grow at an annual average of 5.6 percent between this year and 2007, the fastest expansion rate of any region in the world, the EIU said in the report.
But unlike in the mid-1990s, when growth was dispersed across the region, the giant Chinese and Indian economies will be the main drivers.
"Growth [measured using market exchange rates] in emerging Asia as a whole is forecast to be higher than in other emerging regions, but this is largely owing to strong performances in China and India," the report said.
"This is very different from the mid-1990s, when Asia's performance was linked to rapid economic growth across much of the region."
China's economy is projected to grow 7 percent this year despite the impact of SARS as export volumes continue to expand and domestic demand is robust.
India should grow at an average 5.9 percent in this fiscal year and 6.7 percent next fiscal year (2004-2005), driven largely by the services sector.
As for the rest of East Asia, Hong Kong is expected to grow at 1.1 percent this year and South Korea at 2.8 percent, with the economy seen recovering next year.
The research body did not give a growth figure for Taiwan, but said expansion in the country would be subdued until some time next year.
The 10-member ASEAN grouping is expected to grow "only slightly faster than Eastern Europe" at 4.4 percent a year over the four-year period.
Singapore is expected to grow 2 percent this year, with Malaysia expanding at a faster rate of 3.9 percent, mainly because of its "aggressive fiscal policy aimed at lifting consumption."
Summarizing the challenges to Asia's export-dependent economies, EIU said import demand from the industrialized countries "will remain far slower" compared with the 1990s.
"Demand in the technology industry has improved over the last six months, but remains sluggish in comparison to the heady growth rates seen in the late 1990s and is therefore acting as a break on the important Asian technology industry," the EIU said.
A sharply weaker US dollar "remains a serious concern" despite the greenback's recent rebound as the US continues to run a substantial current account deficit, the EIU said.
For Asia, EIU said a resurgence of SARS later this year cannot be ruled out.
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