Taiwan's export outlook depends on an economic recovery in the US and demand for component parts from Taiwanese-invested companies in China, analysts said.
"The US economic data remains mixed. There is no clear indication about the sales in the upcoming Christmas shopping season, a crucial time for export-oriented countries like Taiwan," said Karl Tseng, a manager with Prudential Securities Investment Trust Co (
KGI Securities (
Yang said although the US consumer confidence in November rose to 84.1 from October's 79.6, retail sales remained flat.
"I remain cautious about the US economy. As a result, I do not think we should be over-optimistic about Taiwan's exports just because of the October statistics," he said.
In October, Taiwan's exports were worth US$11.5 billion, a record high in a year and half, while export orders received by manufacturers in the month marked the seventh consecutive month of double-digit growth at US$13.46 billion, up 12.31 percent from a year earlier.
Exports in the first 10 months this year rose 4.6 percent to US$107.1 billion with the United States accounting for 20.7 percent, after Hong Kong's 23.7 percent.
High tech goods, such as electronic and communications products, make up about 35 percent of the total exports.
Most of the shipments to Hong Kong were bound for China as Taipei bans direct transport links with the mainland.
Tseng said the strong showing in October also reflected the effect of the 10-day shutdown at 29 US West Coast ports during that month.
US importers rushed to increase orders during the port lockout for fear that a possible prolonged shutdown would affect shipments from the west coast.
"Now that a tentative agreement has been reached to end the dispute, there is no urgent need for US importers to add more to their inventories. It is expected to adversely influence Taiwan's export performance," Tseng said.
Yang said he expected Taiwan's exports to grow 9.5 percent in 2002 from last year but predicted a slower growth of 7.4 percent for next year.
Economist at Chinatrust Commercial Bank (
"As Taipei is relaxing restrictions on China-bound investments, more relocation of local manufacturers to the mainland is expected to lower the demand. I am looking at a lower export growth next year," Cheng said.
Chinatrust predicted an eight percent export growth for this year and a slower 5 percent for next year. Part of the export orders placed by US and European buyers are fulfilled by Taiwanese-invested firms in China.
"So, we have witnessed just a single digit production output increase, compared with double digit growth in export orders in the past few months," she said.
RSS