Business executives are gradually turning optimistic about business prospects despite the fact that the business climate index (BCI) has slid for six consecutive months since May, a private think-tank reported yesterday.
In its latest opinion poll conducted in October, the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research found that 20.4 percent of Taiwan companies think that business will turn for the better in the following six months. The figure represented an increase of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month's 18.9 percent.
Some 18.5 percent of those surveyed said they believe that business will turn for the worse in the next six months, representing a noticeable fall from the previous month's 29.4 percent.
Meanwhile, 61.1 percent said they think that business will remain the same, up from the month-earlier figure of 51.7 percent.
The pace of Taiwan's economic recovery seems to have slowed in the second half of this year, with the BCI sliding for the sixth consecutive month since May, researchers said.
The BCI reached peaked at 113.16 in April after an evident recovery in business and trade in Taiwan and abroad since the second half of 2001. However, the BCI for Taiwan began to slide in May, gradually dropping to 102.26 in October.
Wu Rong-I (吳榮義), the institute's president, said that although Taiwan's overall economic situation at present isn't too good as a result of the slowdown in global economic recovery, the rate of decrease of the Taiwan BCI has been getting smaller on a month-on-month basis.
For the fourth quarter of this year, Wu estimated, economic growth will hit around 3.25 percent, with the foreign trade sector expected to be the most brisk, while growth in government investment, private investment and private consumption are all expected to decrease or remain flat.
* About 18.5 percent of those surveyed said they believe that business will get worse in the following six months.
* Around 20.4 percent feel business will turn for the better in the following six months.
* Some 61 percent said they think that business will remain the same.
The Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics forecast Tuesday that Taiwan's overall economic growth will top 3.17 percent for the fourth quarter, slightly lower than the 3.34 percent that it forecast in August, while growth for 2003 will be around 3.38 percent, down from its previous estimate of 3.46 percent.
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