Taiwan's index of leading economic indicators, a forecast of economic conditions for the next three to six months, rose for the third consecutive month in December, projecting a pending economic recovery, officials at the Council for Economic Planning and Development said yesterday.
"It's very likely that a domestic economic recovery will begin in the second quarter if the US economy shows signs of recovery in the first quarter," director of the council's economic research department, Hu Chung-ying (
December's leading economic indicator index increased by 1 percent to reach its highest level of 97.3 points over the last year, while the composite indicator, which reflects the current economic condition, also rose to 15 points from November's 10.
"The five-point increase is the result of three rising indicators in the financial sector, which include the M1B money supply, exchanges of financial notes, intra-bank money transfers and stock prices," Hu said.
Government-led policies have spurred growth in the financial sector, he said.
Council official Jan Fang-guan (詹方冠), however, said that "the country's manufacturing sector is still in recession."
He said that sales volume, the number of new orders, average work-hours and operating profit rates were all still on the decline in December of last year.
Expectations for the next three months remain conservative, according to a council survey of leading manufacturers. The survey said only 16 percent were optimistic about economic conditions for the next three months.
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