Joblessness may rise further next year

Taiwan's jobless rate may have leveled off for the time being, but it is expected to rise again after Chinese New Year, headhunters said yesterday.

"The nation's unemployment rate is not likely to decline below 5 percent before next February or March," Frank You (游偉誌), a manager at 104 Job Bank, said yesterday. You said that unemployment is expected to rise again after the Lunar Chinese New Year in February and worsen to 5.5 percent after university graduates begin to search for jobs in June.

Agreeing with You, Wayne Shiah (夏瑋) at 1111 Manpower Bank said that "job losses will shift from blue collar to white collar workers next year."

Shedding middle management staff will create more job opportunities for other types of workers, he said.

"Many corporations may start laying off mid-level management personnel by flattening their managerial structures and recruiting more low-level administrative staff," Shiah said.

The recruiting professionals, however, optimistically said job choices would improve for those with the right background. They predicted a rise in employment opportunities for telecommunications workers, hardware/software engineers and administrative and sales staff next year.

On Sunday, 104 Job Bank reported that, on average, 0.8 jobs were available for each job seeker, while last month there was only 0.5.

Citing a manpower bank survey yesterday, Shiah said that "industries from the international trade sector are upbeat about WTO entry and 30 percent of international trade-related industries are considering salary increases."

Taiwan's WTO accession, however, is expected to negatively impact the agricultural sector and therefore worsen unemployment. But president of the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research (台經院), Wu Rong-i (吳榮義), said that the impact is minimal since Taiwan is already a relatively open economic entity.

He said that job opportunities in the service industry, including insurers and bankers are expected to rise though mergers planned to reinforce competitiveness.

Wu said he expected to see more job openings for white collar workers after WTO entry.

He said that industries would be looking to "adjust their structure to become more competitive."

He warned, however, that the government needs to develop a "social safety net" by providing subsidies and training to the jobless.

Although unemployment is leveling off, many remain insecure about the job market. Even those who still have jobs are beginning to panic.

"Some 40 percent to 50 percent of those that are still employed have begun searching for other job prospects in the event that they suddenly become laid off," said Chen Yi-yen (陳宜瑩), an analyst at udnjob.com, a job Web site.

Chen said he was optimistic about a recovery in the high-tech industries early next year.

With jobs often hard to find in Taiwan, many are now looking to China. About 10 percent of the job bank's 140,000 job seekers are looking for work in China, You said.

The job bank has 2,000 job opportunities available in China, and Taiwanese have already taken 900 of those positions, he said.

Job opportunities offered by Taiwanese businesses in China are mostly from traditional industries and the information technology sector, he said.