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Specter of a plummet in stocks looms over TAIEX

The business community may find it has to operate with one arm tied behind its back as northern Taiwan limps back to work today. First on the potential casualty list is the Taiwan stock market, which analysts say will reflect the drop in US markets.

Scheduled to be opened for the first time since since US markets reopened following terrorist attacks in New York and Virgina, and after the worst flooding in 50 years in Taipei, analysts say the market is likely to head south when it reopens today.

"Before the US market stabilizes, Taiwan's stock market is likely to remain on the down side, especially since flood damage may drag several listed companies' share prices lower," said Dicky Dai (戴震), an executive at Polaris Securities Group.

Banking services may be hampered as major commercial financial institutions sustained flood damage, including the Bank of Taiwan (台灣銀行), First Commercial Bank (第一銀行), Hua Nan Commercial Bank (華南銀行), Changhua Commercial Bank (彰化銀行) and Taipei Commercial Bank (台北銀行), Chinese-language media reported.

Bank executives said most of the damage was to documents and computer systems, but said the extent of their losses would not be fully known until today when work resumes.

Adding to the headaches, Taipei is halting MRT and train services because underground lines have flooded. Commuters' problems will also be exacerbated by widespread traffic light failures.

Local media also said that securities companies were also hit by flooding, which could indirectly impact trading volume today.

Many of Taipei's securities houses are located on basement levels, some of which have flooded.

Executives from Yuanta Core Pacific (元大京華), Fubon (富邦), Jihsun (日盛) and Masterlink (元富) said that while some of their branches have flooded, the damage was not serious.

The flood damaged department stores and other retail outlets. Total losses, as a result, are likely to be in the hundreds of millions of NT dollars, reports said.

The Hsinchu Science Park did not flood, but analysts said revenue in the high-tech sector for September will nevertheless decrease because operations have been shut down for the last two days.

Sshipments by many local high-tech companies have been postponed since last week's terrorist attacks because flights to the US were grounded for over 48 hours .

According to Chase Fleming, revenue and earnings for the high-tech secort are unlikely to improve in the fourth quarter, negatively impacting local bourses.

ING Baring said a war involving the US would negatively impact global economic activities.

"Emerging markets would be the ones affected most during warfare," said Linda Lue (呂美瑩), a director at ING Baring Securities.
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