Taiwan's leading economic indicator index, considered a predictor of economic conditions for the following three months, rose 0.4 percent in June from May to 92.8, the first rise in the index since February 2000, the Council for Economic Planning and Development announced yesterday.
Of the seven components used to calculate the index, four -- manufacturing sector orders, the average working hours of workers in the manufacturing sector, stock prices and the amount of space applied for housing and construction projects -- were lower.
The three components that rose were customs-cleared exports, the M1B money supply, and wholesale prices.
The coincident index, which reflects monthly economic conditions, fell 1.2 percent from a month earlier to 98.0.
The composite index -- mostly based on the coincident index and partly on the leading indicator index -- which points toward current and near-term economic conditions, was at 9 in June, the same as in May, placing the economic in the "blue" level, indicating a contracting economy. June was the seventh consecutive month that the index has dropped to the "blue level." The composite index consists of five colored signals: red, indicating an overheated economy; red-yellow for a heating economy; green for a healthy economy; yellow-blue for a slowing economy; and blue for a contracting economy.
According to a CEPD survey, manufacturers' June sales fell 4.9 percent from May, and were down 19.4 percent on year, while equipment utilization was at 76.0 percent, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, and down 5.0 percentage points from a year earlier.
Its survey of manufacturers showed 8 percent believed the economy would improve over the next three months, down from 13 percent in May, while 50 percent see the economy maintaining its current status, the same as in May. The remaining 42 percent believed the economy would worsen, compared with 37 percent in the last survey.
RSS