As the standoff between the US and China over the mid-air collision stretches into its second week, US officials and lawmakers have cranked up rhetoric over the lasting damage the impasse could have on trade relations.
But precedent and economic pragmatism will likely ward off any serious impact on trade ties and, in particular, any negative influence on China's hopes of entering the WTO as implied by US officials.
As Taiwan's own entry is linked to China's, suggestions that Beijing's WTO entry could be held up by the incident has put "Taiwan in a terrible situation," said Joseph Wu, professor at National Chengchi University.
"If the relationship between Washington and Beijing goes sour, then Taiwan is going to be affected ... not just cross-strait relations," but possibly also Taiwan's own bid to enter the WTO, said Wu.
US Secretary of State Colin Powell said on CBS's Face the Nation on Sunday that "We are still supporting [China's] access to WTO, but I can say that if we have to go for a vote on normal trading relations again, this situation has not improved their chances of winning that again."
This rhetoric has been fueled by Republican Senators Richard C. Shelby and John W. Warner who said the continued detention of the US crew would force them to reconsider support for legislation renewing China's normal trade relations status, according to the Washington Post.
That vote comes around again in June and the standoff will surely feature in discussions over whether to renew permanent normal trade relations status (PNTR) for China, which was awarded last year but was contingent on China becoming a member of the WTO.
While a vote against the legislation could not prevent China from entering the WTO -- decisions on entry are taken by a two-thirds consensus in the organization and China has many friends among the developing nation members -- it would neccesitate invocation by the US of Article 13 of the WTO agreement.
This action would mean that none of the free trade conditions granted to all WTO members would apply to the trade relationship between China and the US; a condition completely unpalatable to both the hard-lobbying corporate America and a government eager to shrink the US$83.8 billion trade defect with Beijing.
Congress is likely to extend PNTR for China as it has never backed down from its annual renewal of China's normal trade relations status in the past despite often strained relations with the Communist nation including incidents like the bombing of China's Belgrade Embassy and annual arms sales to Taiwan.
But the fact that China currently holds 24 US military personnel as "hostages" according to some US lawmakers is itself unprecedented in US-Chinese history and depending on how long they remain detained, will surely feature in discussions regarding the vote.
An area in which US consternation over their troops detention could impact China's entry into the WTO -- and subsequently Taiwan's -- is an ongoing dispute over a multilateral agreements relating to agriculture, service sectors and three other issues.
Only 10 days before the collision, both sides had been engaged in heated discussions over the agreements, of which one centered around the categorization of China's economy, according to a Europe-based trade official.
While China insists it must be considered a developing nation under the agreement, US says it should be regarded as developed.
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