The flood waters may have receded, but the mud and debris brought by Typhoon Xangsane still clog the streets of Hsichih on the outskirts Taipei.
The mud stands as a reminder to homeowners that any plans they might have to sell will remain mired by the impact the town's flood-plagued history has had on property prices.
FILE PHOTO
The regular occurrence of flooding -- combined with an oversupply of units in Hsichih -- has depressed real estate prices. Despite efforts by the government to spur the property market with preferential loans and improved anti-flooding measures, homeowners can expect more bad weather ahead.
Real estate company Evertrust Rehouse (
"Severe flooding in 1997, when the town was inundated three times within 10 days, and again in 1998 dampened buying interest in Hsichih, subsequently pushing down property values," said Chen Yun-ru (陳韻如), analyst at Evertrust.
Hsichih's image as a sinkhole for flood waters was cemented in people's minds during the 1997 flooding, when heavy rains triggered a landslide. The natural disaster partially toppled the foundation of the upscale Lincoln Mansion (
With the town wedged between the foot of mountains that divide Keelung, Taipei and the Keelung River, Hsichih's location makes it susceptible to flooding when water comes rushing down from the surrounding steep slopes and over the embankments of the river, Chen said.
"In Hokkien, Hsichih has an old nickname: shui fan jiao (
For homeowners, this kind of reputation has been damning. Houses and apartments have proven extremely difficult to sell, with more than 5,300 units currently on the market, according to Evertrust's data.
Prices per ping for an apartment in Hsichih are expected to fall to as low as NT$64,000. In Neihu, which is also located on the Keelung River and suffered recent flooding, prices are expected to drop to as low as NT$136,000 per ping.
The only advice Chen could offer homeowners eager to sell is to have patience and hope for a period of one to two years without heavy flooding. By then, Chen said, memories of Hsichih's floods may have faded, perhaps rekindling interest in units located in an area that, on a dry day, can be quite picturesque.
But according to David Lee, (
Lee said the new plan, which is estimated to cost NT$50 billion, will supersede another project currently under construction. That project's inadequacies were highlighted by the latest flooding, causing tremendous dissatisfaction among local residents.
"With Typhoon Xansange the water level of the flooding was about two meters higher than the top of the dikes, so people felt very unsafe," Lee said.
Under the current plan, 16 pumping stations and dikes around seven of the Keelung River's tributaries in and near Hsichih should be operational by August.
"Under the new water management plan, the height of the flood walls will be raised by 2.5m to 3m," Lee said. "An extra 10 pumping stations will be installed ... as well as additional soil preservation measures on mountain slopes and flood prevention dams" along the reaches of some of the major tributaries.
After the project is completed, "Flooding won't be stopped ... the danger and possibility of flooding will be reduced," Lee said, adding that the new measures would also provide relief for Juifang and Keelung.
The project is in the final stages of planning and, after Executive Yuan approval, will likely begin in mid-2001 and should be completed within five to six years, after which time property prices in Hsichih should begin to rebound, Lee said.
But Yuan Shao-cheng, (袁紹增) an analyst at National Securities, said that the government's plan is "useless."
"Higher walls along the Keelung River and its tributaries can't stop water running down from the mountains and flooding the town," Yuan said.
And installing "extra pumping stations means that cleanup time might be shortened, but it wouldn't have a significant impact on reducing the danger of flooding," he added.
While it may be hard to see prices falling in Hsichih -- few sales makes it difficult to discern the property market's movement -- Yuan said that the town's flood history will keep prices low and flat indefinitely.
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