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Alternative power plan may short-circuit

The Ministry of Economic Affairs' (經濟部) proposed power generation plan to replace the generating capacity of the Fourth Nuclear Power Plant is showing cracks while under the scrutiny of industry insiders and government officials and may fail to meet Taiwan's power needs before the nation's generating capacity falls to dangerously low levels.

The plan, which is hoped will counter the expected shortfall of power in northern Taiwan if the nuclear plant is cancelled, proposes opening more independent LNG-fueled power plants in the north, liberalizing the power supply sector and expediting completion of the third north-south power line.

However, flaws appear to exist in all three of the plan's pillars.

According to a senior Taipower (台電) executive, the assumption that it will be possible to open up more power plants in the north -- where there are numerous land ownership issues, dense population and high land costs -- is simply not realistic.

"The lack of space in the north and the opposition by residents to the construction of additional plants will make such an undertaking very difficult," said the executive.

The spatial restrictions will be compounded by the fossil fuel-fired plants' need for additional land to store the LNG, coal or oil, the executive said.

Another flaw lies in expediting the further liberalization of the power supply sector. While privatizing the state-run Taipower, liberalization would also allow for the construction of small power stations to supply industrial parks and heavy power users exclusively, but the entire plan is dependent on a yet-to-be-passed electricity law.

Chuang Shih-ming, (莊世明) chief secretary of the Energy Commission, told the Taipei Times that the "electricity law will determine how much of the electricity industry is liberalized."

"We still have to consider how much to liberalize and when," he added.

The reworking of the legislation by the DPP and its focus on steering Taiwan away from nuclear power and towards LNG-fired power plants may mean it encounters resistance when it goes before the KMT-dominated legislature.

Construction of the nuclear power plant was approved during the former KMT administration and the party remains a die-hard supporter of the project.

In regard to expediting construction of the third north-south high voltage transmission line, which would bring power up to the energy hungry north from southern power stations, the ministry said that the north-central section has been completed and the central-southern section would be up and running by 2002.

But executives at Taipower hinted that this timetable may be overly optimistic and suggested that completion of the line is in fact still "some way off."

And even if the alternative power plan was solid, implementation may take between seven and 10 years, said a Taipower executive, leaving Taiwan's reserve margin to drop below economic minister Lin Hsin-yi's (林信義) prediction of 12 percent, to under 10 percent by around 2006 to 2008.

Taiwan usually maintains a 15 percent reserve margin of power, which is already considered low compared to the 20 percent to 25 percent usually maintained by industrialized countries.

Considering that peak annual electricity demand for 2000 stands at 25,850 megawatts -- just below peak capacity of around 27,000 megawatts -- and demand is expected to increase by an average of 6 percent per year, power shortages in the north look likely.

Fears of power shortages, confusion about the alternative plan and accusations by Taipower that losses from cancelling the project have been underestimated, have led leaders of the nation's largest industrial groups to pressure the government to clearly explain the plan

"They're just not telling people the real truth," the executive said, adding that he government should "put the real facts on the table."
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