Despite the release of the 24 US crew members held in Hainan, there is still some concern in Washington that the plane incident could affect US arms sales to Taiwan and other aspects of US-Taiwan relations, observers in Washington say.
Tom Lantos, the ranking Democrat on the House International Relations Committee, raised the most pointed warning. "I understand the administration acknowledged that the Chinese will raise the issue of future US reconnaissance flights over the Taiwan Strait in talks scheduled for later this month," he said.
He was referring to talks planned to begin on April 18 to deal with the fate of the aircraft still at a military airfield in southern Hainan island, and ways to avoid future such incidents.
"I trust the president will not cave in to Chinese demands to stop the flights," he said. "I also trust that the administration will not cut a secret deal with the Chinese regarding arms sales to Taiwan," he said.
Henry Hyde, the chairman of the House international relations panel, also expressed the hope that arms sales would not be affected. "Irrespective of this entire incident, the Bush administration should proceed with arms sales to Taiwan based on defensive needs of that democratic island and in accordance with the Taiwan Relations Act," he said.
On the other hand, Eric McVadon, a retired admiral who was the military attache at the US embassy in Beijing under the earlier Bush administration, feels that the early end to the stalemate will lessen the chance of a sale of AEGIS-equipped destroyers this year, and feels that that will be a good thing.
If the standoff continued, "there would have been great pressure from Capitol Hill ... the pressure from people like Jesse Helms would have been enormous on the president to go ahead with AEGIS, whether they like it or not," he said. "Now, that may sound like it would be a favorable for Taiwan, but I'm not so sure this is the best atmosphere in which to make those decisions."
"There will be some folks in Taiwan who will not be quite as happy as they might have been otherwise," he said, but "good relations between Washington and Beijing should not be considered as disadvantageous to Taipei, but rather in the long term, advantageous."
State Department spokesman Phil Reeker repeated the administration's stance throughout the incident that Taiwan arms sales are "a completely separate issue." He said the issue will not be brought up at the April 18 meeting.
Most analysts felt that the arms sale decision would not be affected.
The Bush administration is scheduled to announce its decision on this year's arms sales package at a meeting with Taiwan representatives on April 24.
In addition to the Taiwan issue, observers in Washington think the incident will cast a long shadow on Sino-US relations. The incident will be remembered by policymakers and other people on both sides and will stiffen the resolve of conservatives in the US Congress to penalize China when possible, they say.
Much of the response from Congress was muted by the fact that lawmakers are out of town on their spring break, with many either back in their home districts or overseas until April 23. But those who reacted, did so negatively.
Thinktank analysts also said the impact would be long-lasting.
"An already weak relationship has just been made weaker," said Bates Gill, the director of the Center for Northeast Asian Policy studies at the Brookings Institution. "It will make both sides wary about potential cooperation and make things politically difficult for leaders who might see the value of strong relations, but who will be constrained," he said.
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