Editorial: One China is just a mirage

People believe that "statistics speak." But statistics can be nothing more than drivel, as evident in the dispute over the results of various public opinion polls on Beijing's "one country, two systems" dictum. According to recent private polls, 30 to 47 percent of people in Taiwan support one country, two systems. On Monday, however, the Mainland Affairs Council released the results of a poll conducted just before Beijing won its Olympic bid last Friday. That poll showed that only 13.3 percent of respondents support one country, two systems.

The confusing statistics reflect not only the different polling methods employed by pollsters, but also the different ways in which the people of Taiwan understand the concept of one country, two systems -- not to mention the political biases of Taiwan's media. An analysis of the polls show that the different figures are a result of different polling methods. Questionnaires with different descriptions of one country, two systems naturally generate different understandings and attitudes.

Generally, these descriptions fall into three categories. The first does not offer a clear definition of the concept, but simply asks whether or not one supports it as a model for future cross-strait rela-tions. This type of question yields relatively high support rates -- up to 47 percent.

The second type basically describes one country, two systems as the "Hong Kong-Macau model." This type of poll draws lower support rates, generally around 30 percent.

The third type of question, exemplified by MAC-commissioned polls, clearly defines the content of one country, two systems -- including the fact that Taiwan's government would be viewed as a local government, that the ROC would no longer exist and that Taiwan would be ruled by Beijing. This type of questionnaire yields the lowest support rates, generally between 10 percent and 16 percent.

Obviously, if you ask people whether they would endorse a blank slate entitled "one country, two systems" with no clear explanation of what the term means or what its long-term impact will be, then they are more likely to answer without giving the issue serious thought. In this regard, the recent United Daily News poll belongs to the first category; the MAC-commissioned polls belong to the third. One can easily see which is more credible. Generally, the recent surveys more accurately reflect the pro-China leanings of those who commission the polls than they do the opinions of the people of Taiwan.

Beijing's premier Qian Qichen (錢其琛) recently came up with a seven-point guarantee about what Taiwan will get to keep under one country, two systems. It's hard to see what's so attractive about Qian's guarantee, given that the status quo is far superior to what is on offer. If Beijing wants Taiwan to accept unification, it needs to provide far better political, economic, trade, social and cultural incentives.

Before Hong Kong's handover in 1997, Beijing promised to keep the territory's system intact for 50 years. Just four years later Hong Kong's democracy is bankrupt, its chief executive able to be sacked at Beijing's whim. How Taiwan can trust China's promises is a big question.

The officials in Beijing charged with cross-strait affairs are trying to use various organizations in Taiwan to create a mirage of rising public support for one country, two systems. This illusion has been created by the convergence of the hot air emitted by China's puppets in Taiwan and the authorities in Beijing with the desire of an economically-pressed populace for some soothing reassurance of stability. But remember, mirages disappear as one gets closer to them.