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Analysts begin to fit together the pieces of victory

By Irene Lin and Oliver Lin
STAFF REPORTER
Sunday, Mar 19, 2000, Page 19

Members of the media and supporters gather in front of multiple video screens reporting the city-by-city results of the presidential election at the campaign headquarters of DPP candidate Chen Shui-bian yesterday. PHOTO: AP

The "Lee Yuan-tseh (李遠哲) effect," the split within the KMT and then the party's miscalculations in its campaign strategy are seen as the major reasons for the victory of DPP presidential candidate Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁), analysts and campaign officials said yesterday.

Chinese Premier Zhu Rong-ji's (朱鎔基) sharp rhetoric against Taiwan and Chen in particular, coupled with Lien Chan's (連戰) mishandling of the incident and his failure to capitalize on Chinese threats also helped, analysts said.

Chairman of the New Party, Hau Lung-pin (郝龍斌), also attributed Chen's victory to Chinese saber-rattling, including that from its premier.

"Taiwanese don't want to negotiate on reunification under threat of the use of force," Hau said. "We hope China will keep a cool head in dealing with the election results and reviewing its mistakes in its Taiwan policy. We hope it understands that the Taiwanese not only want peace, but peace with dignity."

In the final countdown before the election, Academia Sinica president and Nobel laureate Lee Yuan-tseh gave Chen his support -- even though it was not literally spelled out. That move, political analysts believe, was the key event that contributed to Chen's victory.

"Without Lee's endorsement, Chen would not have won," said Chen Tung-sheng (陳東升), chairman of the department of sociology at National Taiwan University.

"Voters have confidence in Lee, who is a symbol of intellectual consciousness and reform forces, so they would also have confidence in Chen's ability to be president," he said.

Analysts said Lee's backing contributed to around 5 to 8 percent of Chen's votes because indecisive or swing voters cast their ballots for Chen on the strength of Lee's endorsement.

However, another key factor for most voters was an expectation that Chen Shui-bian will be able to save the country from totally sinking into the quagmire caused by deep-rooted political corruption, commonly referred to as "black gold" politics.

"It's [Chen's image and his campaign platform] a striking contrast with the KMT's cozy relations with the country's notorious gangster chiefs and business leaders. Chen is bringing an ideal vision of how democracy can be practiced and is hoping to point the country in a healthy direction," said political analyst Joseph Wu (吳釗燮).

Analysts, however, were quick to point out that the impression that Chen will be able to make a difference in the way Taiwan's political system works does not come from Chen's background as a member of the opposition -- but from his idea to form a National Policy Advisory Committee (國政顧問團). Last week, Lee Yuan-tseh announced he would resign from the Academia Sinica in order to head the committee if Chen was elected. Chen has said the committee will include talented people from various fields, regardless of their political affiliations.

Strategic voting also played a role in Chen's victory, his campaign officials said.

"Apparently many voters who originally planned to vote for Lien decided to transfer their votes to Chen to keep independent James Soong (宋楚瑜) from being elected," said Lin Chia-cheng (林嘉誠), a Chen campaign official.

But part of the fault could be Lien's, Wu said. "Lien tried to exploit China's threat to his own advantage, unwittingly showing that he could not stand up to China. That obviously backfired," he said.

He also noted that the split within the ruling party caused by Soong's decision to run as an independent had severely hurt the KMT.
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