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Poll shows British support for Afghan war has dipped

British public support for the war against the Taliban has dropped by 12 points in the past fortnight and a majority now believe there should be a pause in the bombing to allow aid convoys into Afghanistan.

The sharp drop in support revealed by yesterday's Guardian/ICM poll confirms Tony Blair's fears that the reality of modern warfare and reports of mounting civilian casualties have already led to a wobble in British support.

It provides clear evidence that there has been a significant change in the mood of the country towards the war and explains why ministers have spent the last weekend trying to shore up public opinion and why the prime minister is to appeal to the nation to "keep its nerve" in a major speech yesterday.

Although the prime minister will take comfort from the fact that nearly two-thirds say they approve of military action, the prime minister will be alarmed by details of the survey, which show that support among women has slumped by 17 points from 68 percent to 51 percent. Only a bare majority of women now approve of military action against the Taliban.

It is a similar picture among older voters, with support among the over 65s dropping from 71 percent to just 54 percent in the past fortnight. The slide in support for military action is least marked amongst men, where backing for the war has fallen by only six points from 80 percent to 74 percent, and among the young, down from 73 percent to 64 percent.

But it should be noted that while positive support for the war has cooled somewhat, this has not necessarily translated into anti-war feeling.

Those opposed to military action have risen by only four points in the last fortnight from 16 percent to 20 percent. The largest growth has been among humanitarian sceptics, with don't knows rising by eight points to 18 percent.

This is shown most clearly by the clear majority who agree with the statement that there should be a pause in the bombing campaign against the Taliban to allow aid convoys to go into Afghanistan.

A majority of 54 percent believe this should happen, with 29 percent saying that the bombing campaign should continue without pause.

When viewed against the 62 percent support for military action, this suggests that the clear motive behind those who back the calls for a pause in the bombing is humanitarian rather than outright anti-war reasons.

Among women there is overwhelming support for a pause (59 percent to 19 percent) but opinion among men is closer, with 49 percent in favour of a pause and 40 percent opposed.

Further evidence that it is a humanitarian inspired wobble in public opinion rather than outright opposition to the war is shown by the results to the question on attitudes towards sending British troops into Afghanistan to take part in the fighting on the ground. Some 57 percent backed the decision announced on Friday for a small force of British commandos to be sent to Afghanistan.

Some 29 percent disapproved of this decision, showing that there is only a small gap in British public opinion between attitudes to the bombing campaign and to use of British troops on the grounds.

A bare majority, 51 percent, said they were either very confident (12 percent) or fairly confident (39 percent) that the authorities could deal with it effectively.

ICM interviewed a random sample of 1,000 adults aged over 18 by telephone between Oct. 26 and Oct. 28. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults.
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